If your matcha supplier has started capping your order, pushing delivery from two weeks to a month, or quietly raising the price every quarter, you are not alone. We run a matcha stand in Asakusa, Tokyo, and we buy tencha-based matcha in the same market your supplier does. Here is what is actually happening in Japan in 2026, with the numbers, and five things a café can do about it this month.

Short version: Japan is producing more matcha than ever, and it still is not enough. Prices at the source rose again in 2026 even though volume went up. The shortage is not ending; it is settling into a new, higher price level. The cafés that come through it are the ones that stop treating matcha as a commodity and start treating it like coffee: a named origin, a known supplier, a planned budget.

What the shortage looks like from Japan

Exports doubled in one year

Japan’s green tea exports in calendar 2025 reached ¥72.1 billion, roughly double the ¥36.4 billion of 2024, on 12,612 tonnes (up from 8,798 tonnes). It was the first time exports passed 10,000 tonnes in about 70 years. The United States is the largest market, taking more than 30% of the total. Most of that growth is powdered tea, which is to say matcha.

Supply went up. Prices went up anyway.

This is the part most “shortage” articles miss. Japan did respond. Main producing prefectures harvested 24,100 tonnes of first-flush tea in 2026, up 21% from 2025, which had been the smallest crop on record. Kyoto’s Uji tencha volume at auction rose 48.7%.

And yet, at the first tencha auction of the 2026 season in Kyoto on May 13, the average price was ¥14,127 per kilogram, 1.7 times the previous year and the highest in ten years. Across the Kyoto first-flush season, Uji tencha averaged ¥52,086 per kilogram, up 20.2%. In Kagoshima, now Japan’s largest tencha-growing region, first-flush tencha reached ¥13,910 per kilogram, 2.3 times the 2025 price.

When a crop grows by a fifth and the price still rises by more than half, demand is running well ahead of what new fields can deliver.

Why it will not fix itself next season

  • Tencha is a five-year investment. A tea bush planted today will not give a full tencha harvest until around 2031. Shade structures, harvesting equipment and tencha-drying furnaces are all separate capital costs that a farm has to justify.
  • The pipeline is already running. National tencha production was 5,336 tonnes in 2024, up roughly 50% in five years, with Kagoshima supplying about 40% of it. Growth is happening; it is just slower than the demand curve.
  • The conversion has a cost. Farms switching from sencha to tencha are what caused the parallel sencha price spike in 2025–26. Japan is not short of tea fields; it is short of tea fields set up for matcha.

What it feels like on the café side

Local news from North America and Europe tells the same story in different accents. A café in Redding, California reported lead times stretching from two weeks to a month, order caps from the supplier, and an approximately 50% increase in the price of matcha, which the owner chose not to pass on to customers for now. A café owner in Ireland ended up flying to Uji to find a supplier and now imports directly.

Those are not edge cases. They are the standard experience for a small café buying through a distributor in 2026.

Five things you can do this month

1. Stop buying “matcha.” Start buying an origin.

“Ceremonial grade” is marketing language, not a regulated standard. What actually determines the color, sweetness and price of your latte is where the leaf was grown and when it was harvested. Kagoshima and Shizuoka are the regions that have expanded fastest, and they are where the stable café-volume supply is coming from. Uji is the smallest, most expensive corner of the market and the one being fought over hardest. If your supplier cannot tell you the prefecture, you do not know what you are buying, and you cannot plan.

2. Know your cost per cup, not per kilo

A properly made iced matcha latte uses about 3 g of matcha per 16 oz cup. That is the number we use at our stand. At that dose, a kilogram makes roughly 330 lattes. Work out what one cup costs you at today’s price and at a price 30% higher. In almost every café we have talked to, matcha is still one of the highest-margin drinks on the menu even after the 2025–26 increases. The shortage is a budgeting problem, not a menu-killing one.

3. Have two suppliers, and make one of them Japanese

A distributor in your country is convenient, but it is also one more step where stock can be rationed. The cafés that have coped best in 2025–26 had a second source that ships directly from Japan, even if that source covers only part of their volume. Direct shipping to the US is less exotic than it sounds: it needs an FDA Prior Notice from the shipper, and small parcels move by EMS in about a week. We have covered the mechanics in How to Buy Matcha Direct from Japan.

4. Order smaller, more often

In a tight market, a supplier who will sell you three 30 g tins or three 1 kg bags is worth more than one who quotes you a container price. Smaller minimums let you test an origin before committing, keep stock fresh (matcha is at its best within a few months of grinding), and spread your risk across more than one source.

5. Match the grade to the drink

Do not whisk scarce top-grade tencha into a strawberry matcha latte. In a milk drink, a slightly more robust, slightly less expensive matcha gives you better color and more flavor, and the sweeter, more delicate grades are wasted. Reserve the premium tins for straight usucha if you serve it at all.

Where WOW!CHA fits

We are not a trading company. We are a kitchen-car matcha stand in Asakusa and at Tokyo Dome City, and we have poured more than 5,000 matcha lattes since opening in June 2026, almost all of them for overseas visitors. The matcha we use is a Kagoshima–Shizuoka blend chosen for lattes, packed in Japan by an FDA-registered facility.

Because we buy in the same market as everyone else, we felt the 2026 price rise directly. What we can offer a café is small and specific: the same matcha that is in our cups, in 30 g tins (minimum three) or 1 kg bags (minimum three), shipped from Japan to the US with the FDA Prior Notice filed by us. No container, no distributor, no annual contract. If you want to try an origin before you commit a menu to it, that is what we are for.

See the matcha powder, tins and 1 kg bags →

FAQ

Is the matcha shortage over in 2026?
No. Japan’s 2026 first-flush harvest was 21% larger than 2025, but tencha prices in Kyoto and Kagoshima still rose by 20% to 130% depending on grade and region. Supply is growing more slowly than demand, so expect tight availability and firm prices through at least 2027.

Why is matcha so expensive right now?
Exports doubled in 2025 to ¥72.1 billion, with the US taking more than 30%. Tencha, the shade-grown leaf used for matcha, takes about five years to bring into full production, so farms cannot catch up in one season. First-auction tencha in Kyoto hit a ten-year high of ¥14,127 per kilogram in May 2026.

How much matcha does a café need per latte?
About 3 g per 16 oz iced latte is a good café standard; some shops use 2 g for hot drinks. At 3 g, a 1 kg bag makes roughly 330 lattes.

Can a small café buy matcha directly from Japan?
Yes. Small commercial shipments go by EMS in about a week. The shipper files an FDA Prior Notice before dispatch, and the recipient pays any import duty on arrival. Minimums from Japanese sellers vary; ours start at three 30 g tins or three 1 kg bags.

Which region should a café buy from?
For lattes, Kagoshima and Shizuoka offer the most stable supply and the best value in 2026. Uji remains the premium, highest-priced origin and is best reserved for straight usucha.

Figures checked October 2026. Tariff and customs rules change frequently; confirm current duty rates with your broker before importing.